ETHORITY · LONG READ
Plan AI in numbers: outcomes, full cost and a governed stack
54% of German AI users cannot say what AI costs them. Seven calculators turn saved hours, models, stacks, full cost and AI Act dates into a plan with owners and evidence.
Most AI plans stall on two questions. What does a useful result cost? And what does it run on? In Germany, 54% of firms that use AI cannot say what it costs them (Bitkom, Sep 2026). Worldwide, about nine in ten organisations report regular AI use, yet only 37% attribute any EBIT effect to it (McKinsey, Aug 2026). The gap is not enthusiasm. It is arithmetic, done on the wrong boundary.
Start from accepted outcomes, not hours
A supplier's claim of hours saved is activity, not value. ETHORITY's method separates four steps that are often merged: time released, capacity used, accepted outcome and attributable value. The Capacity Conversion calculator makes the difference visible. In the method's worked example, 1,000 accepted cases need 300 hours today and 200 hours with AI. That releases 100 hours. Only 40 of them go to a documented destination, avoided paid overtime, so the Scenario supports €1,600 of avoided cost, not the €4,000 a salary proxy would claim. Net of €1,200 programme cost, €400 a month remain.
The same calculator shows how fragile that is. Add 36 seconds of extra review per case and the monthly result falls to €240. That test comes from the customer-service Scenario of the AI Opportunity Case, where 36 seconds turn a best case negative.
Count all six cost blocks
Licences are the smallest cost driver German firms name; cloud and compute (51%) and data preparation (50%) come up more often. The Total Cost of AI Ownership calculator therefore asks for six blocks on one boundary: one-time integration, licences, usage, human review, governance and change. Its defaults are the cost boundary of the study's customer-service case: €11,000 of full monthly cost over 4,000 accepted outcomes, or €2.75 per accepted outcome. The decision rule is simple: compare that number with today's cost per outcome on the same boundary, before any pilot.
Choose the stack with the constraints first
Technology choices are business choices. The Stack Builder starts from the topic area, the data type and three constraints: EU data location, no training on your data, published price. It returns the six technology layers of the Good AI Prism, from Trust & Governance to Chips & Compute, and names the registry offerings that meet the constraints, each fact with its evidence mark and the date it was read. The Model Cost Estimator prices the same workload across 17 models: in its default the span runs from $70 to $6,980 a month, and two Google list prices double between December and January.
Govern by date
The EU AI Act sets dates, not moods. Article 50 transparency duties apply from 2 Aug 2026; high-risk duties for Annex III uses such as hiring and credit scoring apply from 2 Dec 2027 under Regulation (EU) 2026/1744. The EU AI Act Navigator turns seven answers into an indicative class, the duties of your role and the dates that bind you. It is orientation, not legal advice. The AI Journey Planner then places these dates on a DISCOVER to GROW roadmap, with an owner and an evidence gate at the end of every phase.
A Scenario is a starting point
Every result in the suite is labelled Scenario. It becomes an observed result only when your own records show accepted units, effort and cost for the same month. Each calculator ends with a governance panel: owner, review date, human oversight and the evidence needed. Copy the summary, bring it to your sponsor and decide on the evidence.
Sources and further reading